The Amsterdam Centre for Business Innovation (ACBI) at the University of Amsterdam is a partner institute of the World Economic Forum and collected the Dutch data under the leadership of Henk Volberda, Professor of Strategy & Innovation at the University of Amsterdam.

Half of the experts surveyed expect the next 2 years to be turbulent or even stormy. Over the longer term, this percentage rises further. Declining trust, pressure on the rule of law and growing protectionism are undermining international cooperation and increasing the risk of conflict.

‘For an open trading nation like the Netherlands, geopolitical and geo-economic tensions are not abstract risks, but direct threats to prosperity and strategic autonomy,’ says Volberda.

Geo-economic confrontation as the biggest short-term risk

Experts see the strategic use of economic instruments for geopolitical purposes (geo-economic confrontation) as the most likely trigger of a global crisis in 2026. Trade restrictions, sanctions and technological power struggles are putting international trade relations and investment flows under pressure.
‘This affects the Dutch high-tech industry, energy supply, logistics sector and the position of Rotterdam and Schiphol as international hubs,’ says Volberda. ‘The Netherlands sits at the heart of global value chains. Rising protectionism and technological bloc formation force companies and policymakers to think more strategically about dependencies and resilience.’

Climate and environment dominate the long term

Experts identify environmental and climate risks as the most severe in the long term (to 2036). Extreme weather events once again top the list, followed by biodiversity loss and ecosystem disruption. Volberda says: ‘For the Netherlands – with its vulnerable delta and high population density – the implications are significant. Flood risks, pressure on energy and digital networks, and the need for large-scale infrastructure investment are increasing. Climate risks are not a future scenario for the Netherlands, but a daily reality. Without accelerated investment in climate adaptation and infrastructure, our vulnerability will continue to grow.’

Technology: opportunities and risks

Technological developments are playing an increasingly important role in the global risk landscape. The impact of AI is ambiguous: higher productivity may go hand in hand with growing labour market inequality and a loss of meaning in work. At the same time, concerns are rising about misinformation, cyber insecurity and the military use of AI, with risks of unintended escalation of conflicts.

Quantum technology is also identified as an emerging risk in the report. Breakthroughs in quantum computing could undermine existing cryptographic systems, with major consequences for digital security, geopolitical power relations and economic competition. ‘The challenge for the Netherlands is to deploy AI strategically for broad prosperity, without putting social cohesion, trust and democratic values under pressure,’ Volberda says.

Infrastructure and economy under strain

Ageing critical infrastructure is proving vulnerable to both extreme weather conditions and geopolitical tensions. At the same time, high debt levels, uncertainty about returns on large-scale investments (such as in AI), and a possible resurgence of inflation are creating economic risks in both developed and emerging economies.

Proactive approach needed

Volberda: ‘The analysis points to the risk of a world in which international cooperation is declining, while global problems increasingly demand joint solutions. For the Netherlands, this means that an active role within Europe, strengthening strategic autonomy and long-term thinking in policy and business are essential.’

‘The Netherlands must choose strategic consistency. That means investing in knowledge, innovation and cooperation, both domestically and within Europe. Only then can we remain economically competitive and socially resilient.’